Je dirais de prime abord que l’économie sénégalaise est à la croisée des chemins. En effet, le pays a réalisé des bonds extraordinaires dans beaucoup de domaines de son processus de développement économique et social, avant la pandémie du Covid.19. Le taux de croissance annuel moyen a été maintenu à un niveau tournant autour de 5% sur les 6 ans ayant précédé la pandémie.
Des investissements ont été réalisés ou ont connu un début de réalisation dans beaucoup de domaines, notamment des infrastructures publiques (transport urbain durable, domaine portuaire et aéroportuaire, électrification, adduction d’eau, etc.).
Des programmes sociaux ciblant davantage les pauvres, comme les cash transferts ont commencé à entrer dans les mœurs politiques. Mais la Covid 19 et l’instabilité politique que le pays a connue depuis 2020, ont significativement impacté l’économie nationale.
Il s’y ajoute que le contexte international a beaucoup changé, avec un monde qui est de facto en situation de poly crises (crise sanitaire, crise financière, crise de l’emploi, crise géopolitique, crise climatique, crise migratoire, etc.), avec d’importantes ramifications pour les pays africains, dont le Sénégal bien sûr. Un nouveau gouvernement a été installé il y a moins d’un an.
A mon avis, il faudra un peu de temps, pour que les chercheurs que nous sommes puissions évaluer le travail qui aura été fait, et indiquer dans quelle mesure il aura changé la trajectoire économique du pays.
En termes de goulots d’étranglement, on peut noter beaucoup de pesanteurs structurelles qui gênent la croissance et ralentissent le processus de développement.
Entre autres, il y a la sempiternelle question des coûts des facteurs de production, beaucoup plus élevés au Sénégal par rapport aux pays concurrents. Ceci n’encourage pas les investissements et par conséquent, réduit d’autant les possibilités de création d’emplois décents.
Il y a aussi le cadre institutionnel (la législation du travail, la fiscalité, la qualité de l’appareil administratif) qui n’est pas très favorable à l’émergence et au développement d’un écosystème entrepreneurial florissant. Mais, le défi le plus important auquel le Sénégal d’aujourd’hui doit faire face, est, à mon avis, celui d’avoir une masse critique d’entreprises performantes et bien implantées.
Tous les régimes précédents ont buté sur cet obstacle de taille pour notre processus de développement.
Et c’est à ce niveau que le nouveau régime sera particulièrement attendu. Si le Sénégal doit faire des progrès remarquables dans le domaine du développement, la création d’un secteur privé solide et vibrant, en sera le prérequis.
- Il ressort du diagnostic de la situation économique du Sénégal durant cette décennie, une augmentation du déficit structurel du compte extérieur courant, qui a été toujours au-dessus de 5%. Quelle explication stylisée donnez-vous de ce constat ?
L’explication est très simple : on importe plus qu’on n’exporte. Nous importons pratiquement tout ce que nous consommons et la plupart de nos biens d’investissement. En revanche, notre panier de production et d’exportation ne s’est pas beaucoup diversifié au fil des ans. Je dirais même que notre économie est devenue moins complexe au fil des années.
Dans les années 70 et 80, on produisait des biens correspondant à un niveau de complexité plus élevé, que ce qu’on produit et exporte maintenant.
Certaines industries comme les cuirs et peaux, le textile, la confection, le bois, l’industrie mécanique, etc… étaient en meilleure forme qu’elles ne le sont maintenant si elles n’ont pas simplement disparu.
Et là, on exporte essentiellement des produits de base et avec la récente découverte de pétrole et de gaz, il est fort à parier que ces tendances lourdes risquent de s’amplifier. Il nous faut un panier d’exportation plus diversifié et des biens plus complexes. Et encore une fois, il n’y a que le privé qui peut faire, l’Etat n’ayant pas vocation à produire des biens et services marchands.
–Le Sénégal vient de se doter d’un nouveau référentiel en matière de politique économique. Les réformes et orientations souhaitées dans l’agenda prioritaire 2025-2029 permettront-elles d’atteindre les objectifs de transformation systémique et de souveraineté économique ? Selon vous, y a-t-il des défis structurels ?
Il y a des défis structurels à tous les programmes de développement et l’agenda national de transformation (ANT) ne sera pas une exception. Le contexte international marqué par la rareté des ressources financières, en particulier va constituer un obstacle de taille pour l’ANT.
Il s’y ajoute, que l’ambition de souveraineté risque de se heurter aux mêmes défis, que ceux que le Sénégal a eu de la peine à relever depuis son indépendance, c’est à dire celui d’une économie basée sur un secteur privé solide. Sans un secteur privé fort, point de souveraineté économique !
Il faudrait à mon avis que l’Etat commence par fixer le périmètre des domaines économiques dans lesquels il veut et il peut être souverain.
Dans le domaine du budget, ça va être très difficile d’être totalement souverain, même si nous pouvons significativement réduire notre dépendance de l’extérieur. Cela supposera que l’on soit disciplinés dans nos dépenses, et efficaces dans le recouvrement de nos impôts, mais surtout que l’économie tourne bien, l’impôt étant principalement assis sur l’activité économique.
On pourrait également être souverains (autosuffisants) dans certains secteurs d’activité, comme par exemple la riziculture ou l’horticulture.
Que dire du secteur de la santé ? Une bonne partie de l’élite politique et intellectuelle se dirige systématiquement vers la France pour des soins de santé dès le moindre souci sanitaire. Est-ce qu’on va aussi compter ça dans la souveraineté ?
Je pense qu’on devrait d’abord, commencer par développer un cadre conceptuel et des indicateurs de souveraineté (dans le sens d’autosuffisance) dans des secteurs bien identifiés, ensuite, fixer un horizon pour la souveraineté et enfin, disposer d’indicateurs de mesure des progrès réalisés dans chaque domaine. Sans de tels instruments de mesure et de suivi, il va être extrêmement difficile de traduire cette ambition en réalité tangible.
Un tel cadre permettrait aussi de comprendre les imbrications et possibles incompatibilités entre différents domaines de souveraineté.
Par exemple, développer une souveraineté alimentaire va certainement nécessiter beaucoup d’investissements, dans un contexte de déficit budgétaire chronique. Comment les financer sans remettre en cause la souveraineté budgétaire ?
Enfin, je dois préciser que la souveraineté ne garantit pas forcément l’efficience économique.
Par exemple, on peut être autosuffisant en riz ou en sucre, en contrepartie de différentiels de prix exorbitants vis-à-vis du marché international, qui plongeraient beaucoup de ménages dans la pauvreté. Je crois que toutes ces questions sont très complexes et mériteraient des analyses et simulations plus poussées
- Dans le cadre de vos travaux de recherche, vous attachez un grand intérêt à l’économie informelle. Pour le cas du Sénégal, comment faire de l’informel un levier potentiel de création de richesses et un acteur du développement endogène ? Pensez-vous que l’idée de formaliser l’informel est une bonne doctrine économique ? Quid des mesures ciblées ?
J’ai déjà eu l’occasion de dire qu’il est impossible de formaliser l’informel juste en les forçant à s’enregistrer ; l’enregistrement n’étant qu’un aspect parmi tant d’autres, de l’informalité. Le premier défi le plus important pour l’Etat est de ralentir le rythme auquel des entreprises initialement formelles s’informalisent.
L’émergence et l’expansion de l’informel est une réponse du secteur privé national à l’hostilité de l’environnement des affaires.
Tant qu’il n’y aura pas d’amélioration à ce niveau, il ne faut pas s’attendre à ce que la taille de l’informel diminue.
En revanche, l’Etat peut appuyer les acteurs de l’informel, par des programmes de formation mieux ciblés, un financement plus adapté, un accompagnement adéquat, un meilleur accès aux services sociaux de base, pour les aider à se développer et à se moderniser.Mais cela demande une meilleure cartographie des chaines de valeur informelles et une meilleure compréhension de leur mode opératoire.
- Le chômage des jeunes notamment constitue un problème majeur au Sénégal. Quelles sont, selon vous, les politiques durables et efficientes à adresser pour davantage faciliter l’employabilité, l’emploi et l’insertion professionnelle ?
Les seules politiques durables et efficientes sont celles qui contribuent à créer un secteur privé fort, capable de générer des emplois de qualité. Le secteur privé ne se réduit pas forcément aux grandes entreprises.
Les PME et les nano-entreprises font aussi partie de l’écosystème entrepreneurial ; elles en constituent même l’épine dorsale au Sénégal. Disposer d’un cadre institutionnel et des affaires suffisamment incitatif est la précondition pour générer de bons emplois.
–La nouvelle configuration géopolitique et géostratégique est à l’origine de certains débats agités par des acteurs sur la quête de la souveraineté monétaire de nos Etats. Quel est votre avis critique sur ce point ? Battre notre monnaie ou continuer pour l’arrimage à l’euro ?
Je crois que la question de la monnaie est une question très sensible. Le Sénégal appartient à une zone monétaire régionale et devrait continuer à gérer sa monnaie dans le dispositif régional existant
–L’encours de la dette publique du Sénégal a connu une accumulation rapide et est passé de 40% en 2012 à 83,7%. Quelles sont les stratégies optimales de financement public garantissant la soutenabilité de la dette ?
A mon avis, il faut d’abord augmenter l’épargne nationale, à travers une stratégie de mobilisation appropriée. Ensuite, attirer l’investissement direct étranger à travers la mise en place d’un environnement des affaires de meilleure qualité.
Enfin, il faut, autant que faire se peut, privilégier les sources de financement concessionnelles.
Mais cela ne dépend pas que de nous ; les financements concessionnels sont une forme d’aide publique au développement, dont l’accès est plus facile lorsqu’on a des relations bien huilées avec les partenaires techniques et financiers.
Lejecos Magazine
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