Ce 3 février 2024 en principe, Monsieur le Président de la République a décidé de procéder au report de l’élection présidentielle initialement prévue le 25 février 2024.
Au delà des aspects juridiques y relatifs, cet acte ouvre des perspectives pour le moins défavorables à maints égards sur le plan économique en général et pour l’investissement privé en particulier.
Il convient de souligner que les dommages potentiels susceptibles d’être causés au secteur productif sénégalais peuvent s’apprécier à l’aune de la grande extraversion de économie où le commerce extérieur représente 63% du PIB, selon la BNP PARIBAS reprenant les données de la Banque mondiale.
Ces dommages doivent également être reliés au pari fait dans le Plan Senegal Émergeant (PSE) notamment dans sa version actualisée, le PAP III de retenir l’investissement privé comme modalité principale de création de richesses et d’emplois.
C’est du reste dans cet esprit que des réformes ont été entreprises pour améliorer l’environnement des affaires et susciter l’investissement.
Il s’agit notamment de la révision du code des investissements, de la loi PPP et des zones économiques spéciales. Parallèlement, un programme de construction d’infrastructures a été engagé pour davantage soutenir le secteur productif. De même, la dette et l’instabilité politique exercent un effet négatif sur la croissance économique au sein des pays de l’UEMOA, singulièrement au Sénégal (IDEP 2009).
Or, il se trouve que ces deux variables sont les plus présentes dans l’économie sénégalaise en 2024.
En effet, le taux d’endettement public qui ressort à 76,6% selon les chiffres de la Banque mondiale reste au dessus des critères établis dans le cadre du pacte de convergence de l’UEMOA. S’agissant de la stabilité, elle est mise à rude épreuve avec la situation actuelle.
N’ayant pas historiquement de ressources naturelles significatives, le Sénégal a toujours vendu à ses partenaires publics et privés sa stabilité sociopolitique qui constitue sa marque de référence universelle.
Il est également utile de souligner que depuis 2000, l’investissement privé a connu une hausse de 8% en moyenne.
bonne tendance a toutefois été entravée par les velléités de « succession monarchique » évoquées dans l’opinion entre 2011 et 2012. Cette simple évocation avait donné lieu à un repli de près de 5%, les investisseurs ayant préférer observer un attentisme jusqu’à la dissipation des incertitudes qui planaient sur l’environnement des affaires.
Au regard de ces éléments de contexte, les incertitudes occasionnées par les tensions politiques pourraient affecter le rythme de l’activité pour plusieurs raisons.
Premièrement, cette décision de report pourrait amener les investisseurs à différer, voire annuler la réalisation de leurs projets faute de prévisibilité sur le futur proche avec un impact négatif sur la production.
Deuxièmement, plus que par le passé, le Sénégal qui subit encore les effets des chocs de la Covid 19 et du conflit ukrainien, se doit de renforcer sa résilience économique pour résorber ses nombreux déséquilibres (dérapage de la dette, inflation, chômage, difficultés d’approvisionnement des marchés en produits alimentaires, etc).
La stabilité des prix ne s’accommodant pas de tensions, une inflation plus importante n’est pas à exclure du fait de répercussion sur le panier de la ménagère des hausses des facteurs de production et des difficultés d’approvisionnement ajoutés aux achats de précaution.
Une telle évolution serait préjudiciable à la compétitivité internationale des entreprises.
Tous ces dysfonctionnements requièrent pour solution un surcroît d’investissements et de partenariats. Ce report avec les incertitudes qu’il induit remettrait en question les efforts de mobilisation du secteur privé et de promotion des investissements.
Troisièmement, le secteur privé a déjà subi beaucoup de dommages lors des récentes tensions survenues au Sénégal au lendemain de décisions judiciaires sans aucune forme d’indemnisation de l’Etat.
D’autres destructions de moyens de production ajoutées à une possible léthargie économique seraient de nature à exacerber la faiblesse déjà remarquée de notre outil de production. En particulier, le petit commerce des ménages et les transports qui servent de rempart contre la pauvreté au jour le jour sont en difficulté du fait du ralentissement de l’activité.
Quatrièmement, l’éventualité d’une dégradation de la note du Sénégal pourrait se traduire par des surcoûts pour la dette et des difficultés de nouer des accords de partenariat.
Déjà, au lendemain de l’annonce présidentielle, la valeur des obligations en devises (Eurobonds) a fortement chuté sur les marchés financiers.
De plus, dans des situations d’incertitudes politiques, les banques commerciales relèvent leurs taux débiteurs servis aux entreprises et aux ménages pour prendre en compte la hausse du risque de défaut. Ces deux agents économiques auront d’une manière ou d’une autre à supporter également l’augmentation du service de la dette à cause du réajustement à la hausse des taux d’intérêt sur les emprunts publics.
Parallèlement, les tensions de trésorerie amèneraient le Trésor public à ouvrir un nouveau cycle d’accumulations d’arriérés de paiements aux entreprises.
Cinquièmement, cette décision qui installe une répétition des tensions, présente des effets à plus long terme. Les investisseurs mesurent « le risque de réputation » du Sénégal amplifié par l’essor des médias sociaux qui inscrit le pays sur une appréciation structurellement négative sur un horizon plus lointain.
Au total, déjà fragilisé par sa vulnérabilité, dans un contexte de grande pauvreté, ajouté à son extraversion, le Sénégal pourrait annihiler les acquis en matière de réformes du climat des affaires, de construction d’infrastructures et surtout de réalisation d’unités de production.
Pour toutes ces raisons, à défaut de respecter le calendrier électoral, la fixation rapide d’une date dans le respect de l’arrêt du Conseil constitutionnel devient un impératif de gouvernance économique.
toutinfo
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