Le prochain président est connu
Actuellement, le « ni oui ni non » de Macky Sall sert davantage à négocier une sortie qu’à se maintenir au pouvoir (intime conviction). Les tractations portent principalement sur la mise sur pied de conditions sociales et politiques défavorables à Ousmane Sonko. A tout bien considéré, Karim Wade l’aura tout facile. Il ne sera pas seulement le candidat du PDS ; il portera le combat de l’establishment, celui de la tempérance et de la prudence contre l’extrémisme. Facteur d’engouement et de convergence, la peur de l’aventure constituera la mécanique déployée en guise de résistance au changement et investie exclusivement contre le projet de rupture.
Ne soyons pas étonné que Karim Wade devienne le prochain président du Sénégal. Arrivé deuxième au premier tour, après Sonko, il sera porté au pouvoir, en désespoir de cause. Cocasse comme tout, ceux qui éprouvent déception puis répulsion pour Macky et consort, basculeront, par peur d’engager le Sénégal dans l’incertitude. Karim Wade, ce sera délibérément le candidat de Benno, de l’Eglise, des mourides, des tidianes etc. Karim Wade, ce sera également et bien souvent en rupture avec leurs mentors, le candidat des « politiciens professionnels », c’est-à-dire une bonne partie des acteurs ou témoins de la vie sociale.Khalifa Sall aurait bien joué ce rôle d’alternative face au projet de bouleversement : évolution versus révolution. Malheureusement pour lui, pour s’être acoquiné depuis ci-longtemps avec le Pastef et pour lui avoir emprunté son discours et sa véhémence, il s’est auto-écarté du chemin qui mène paisiblement et mûrement au pouvoir. Son couplage contre nature avec Sonko l’en disqualifie d’office. Pour autant, le décalage, qui subsiste entre lui et son électorat substantiel, amoindrira pour beaucoup son apport, en termes de suffrage, à porter son candidat, au deuxième tour, à la tête du pays.
Tout se jouera au deuxième tour.
En attendant, le jeu politique s’opérera principalement à l’Assemblée nationale. Le pouvoir et la capacité de contrôle de Wade fils sur les députés issus de Wallu au service du régime, surtout par l’abstention et les faux-fuyants, témoigneront de la présidentialité de ce dernier et de sa bonne foi. Au premier tour des élections de 2024, l’enjeu sera moindre. Jusqu’à cette étape, les errements notés dans les rangs de Benno seront ménagés, à coup sûr. C’est la condition du ralliement des candidats naturels à la succession du chef de l’APR au deuxième tour. De toute façon, ces candidatures multiples militent en faveur du ballotage qui empêchera Sonko de passer dès le premier tour. En effet, elles contribueront nettement au renforcement du taux de participation.
En 2024, il ne sera pas question de réalisation ou de programme, comme thème de campagne, qui présidera aux destinés. L’objet du débat, à l’image de la logique binaire qui caractérise l’espace politique sénégalais, il sera question de savoir si le cocktail explosif qu’offre le Pastef n’engendre pas plus de dégâts qu’il n’occasionne de progrès. A qui mieux mieux, des deux camps, l’enjeu consistera à mettre davantage en exergue le risque de perpétuation ou d’insuffler à grande échelle la peur des lendemains incertains. Encensé puis couronné, aura déjà réussi celui qui parviendra à imposer le thème de la campagne électorale.
Birame Waltako Ndiaye
Chroniqueur Politique
xibaaru
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