L’annonce de l’entrée en vigueur depuis, hier mercredi 9 avril 2025, d’une nouvelle série de surtaxes douanières décidée par l’administration américaine de Donald Trump, suivie du retropedalage de ce dernier, marque une inflexion majeure dans les échanges commerciaux internationaux.
Sur le plan diplomatique, les autorités sénégalaises demeurent prudentes. Cependant, le Premier ministre a affirmé la volonté du gouvernement de défendre la souveraineté économique du pays.
Cette position ouvre la voie à des initiatives de diversification des partenaires commerciaux, de renforcement des chaînes de valeurs locales, et de redéfinition stratégique des priorités commerciales.
Ces mesures, qui visent plusieurs puissances économiques ainsi que des nations émergentes, concernent également le Sénégal, avec l’instauration d’un droit de douane minimal de 10 % sur les produits en provenance du pays.
Cette orientation protectionniste du gouvernement américain s’inscrit dans une volonté affichée de « “rééquilibrer” des relations commerciales jugées historiquement désavantageuses pour les États-Unis », analyse l’économiste industriel, Souleymane Keita, enseignant-chercheur à l’Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar.
Outre la Chine (34 %), l’Union européenne (20 %), le Japon (24 %), la Corée du Sud (25 %) et l’Inde (26 %), certains pays comme le Viêt Nam (46 %) et le Cambodge (49 %) sont particulièrement ciblés, en raison de leur dynamisme industriel croissant.
« Conjoncture délicate » en Afrique
Selon lui : « Les pays africains, pour leur part, se trouvent plongés dans une conjoncture délicate, marquée par une forte vulnérabilité liée à leur dépendance à un nombre restreint de marchés d’exportation.
Le Sénégal, partenaire commercial des États-Unis dans le cadre de l’AGOA (African Growth and Opportunity Act), est directement concerné par cette évolution ».
Effets directs sur l’économie sénégalaise
Dans le cas où l’AGOA est maintenu sans modifications, « les produits sénégalais textiles, produits agricoles transformés, ressources halieutiques continueront de bénéficier d’une exonération de droits de douane, limitant ainsi les impacts immédiats de la décision américaine », indique l’économiste industriel.
Toutefois, si certaines surtaxes venaient à s’appliquer même partiellement en dehors du cadre de l’AGOA, « la compétitivité du Sénégal serait sévèrement affectée par rapport à d’autres exportateurs, notamment asiatiques ou latino-américains », précise-t-il.
En scénario pessimiste, « une éventuelle exclusion du Sénégal de l’AGOA entraînerait une baisse significative des exportations textiles, pouvant atteindre 30 %, avec à la clé la suppression de milliers d’emplois et une contraction sensible des recettes en devises », prévient-il, non sans rappeler que les États-Unis représentent près de 15 % des exportations sénégalaises bénéficiant de l’AGOA.
Effets indirects : chaînes d’approvisionnement et investissements
Les conséquences de ces mesures dépassent le cadre strict des exportations. Certaines entreprises sénégalaises, qui importent des matières premières américaines (médicaments, équipements technologiques, etc.), pourraient voir leurs coûts de production grimper, affectant l’ensemble du tissu industriel.
Par ailleurs, l’incertitude réglementaire générée pourrait freiner les investissements directs étrangers, notamment dans les secteurs clés des hydrocarbures et des infrastructures, où interviennent des firmes américaines telles qu’ExxonMobil ou Kosmos Energy.
Enfin, dans un contexte de guerre commerciale globale (USA-Chine-UE), les perturbations sur les chaînes logistiques mondiales pourraient entraîner une flambée des prix à l’importation, touchant des produits stratégiques comme le pétrole, le blé ou les machines-outils.
Ripostes africaines : entre isolement stratégique et quête d’unité commerciale
Face à cette tourmente commerciale sans précédent, le professeur dira que les réactions des pays africains demeurent fragmentées, révélant l’absence d’une politique commerciale continentale véritablement coordonnée, en dépit des ambitions affichées de la Zone de libre-échange continentale africaine (ZLECAf).
Des réponses nationales contrastées
Pour s’en convaincre, l’expert industriel donne en exemple le cas du Zimbabwe. A l’en croire, le président Emmerson Mnangagwa a pris l’initiative de suspendre les droits de douane sur les importations américaines, dans le but de stimuler le commerce bilatéral.
Cette décision, motivée par une volonté d’apaisement et de coopération, reflète une orientation pragmatique face à un relèvement tarifaire de 18 %. Face aux surtaxes américaines, plusieurs pays africains adoptent des stratégies différenciées.
Le Lesotho, dont les exportations textiles vers les États-Unis représentent 45% de ses ventes extérieures et plus de 10 % de son PIB, a dépêché une délégation pour négocier un allègement tarifaire. L’Afrique du Sud, pour sa part, opte pour une réponse prudente et privilégie le dialogue, bien que ses exportations soient frappées d’un tarif de 31%, remettant en question les acquis de l’AGOA.
Madagascar, confronté à une surtaxe de 47 % sur des produits clés comme la vanille, les métaux et les vêtements, a entamé une démarche diplomatique pour obtenir une révision des mesures.
Quant au Nigeria, tout en valorisant le partenariat stratégique avec Washington, sa ministre du Commerce appelle à accélérer le commerce intra-africain à travers la ZLECAf et le PAPSS, afin de réduire la vulnérabilité économique du continent.
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